Canada's Job Growth Soars Above Forecasts

For the second consecutive month, Canada’s economy has put a surprisingly large number of people to work, and again most of those were in full-time positions.
Statistics Canada said Friday that while 58,200 more people found jobs last month, the unemployment rate edged up to 7.3% from 7.2% in March as others entered the labour market in search of work.
The vast majority of the new jobs in April were in the private sector.
Friday’s numbers add to the momentum from March, when a massive 82,300 jobs were created.
“This is the strongest back-to-month monthly job gain since 1981,” Scotia Capital in a note to investors.
Full-time employment was up by 43,900 positions in April, while part-time hiring totaled 14,300. In March, there were 70,000 new full-time positions and 12,400 part-time jobs.
Compared to a year earlier, employment is up 1.2%, or 214,000 positions. All of the growth the past 12 month was in full-time positions.
The huge gains in March and April came after fourth months of little change in employment rolls.
“The employment gain in April was primarily in the goods sector, with increases in construction, manufacturing, natural resources and agriculture,” Statistics Canada said.

According to Canadian newspaper "Financial Post", Friday’s (April 11, 2012) stronger than-expected job numbers could help push Canada’s GDP to 3% in the second quarter, a development that could spur the Bank of Canada to begin hiking rates this summer, one economist said Friday.
CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said that such strong numbers could have the Bank of Canada rethinking on when to hike. Mr. Shenfeld had originally expected the Bank to leave interest rates unchanged this year, but he admits that the strong data has him weighing the possbility now.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/11/canadas-job-growth-soars-above-forecasts/

Home Sales in April 18% Higher than in 2011

Great Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions through the TorontoMLS System in April 2012: 3,925 Sales in Toronto (416 Area) and 6,425 Sales in Rest of GTA (905 Areas).

This level of sales was 18% higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011.The strongest sales growth was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home type up by 22% compared to a year ago.

“Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions.Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment increased.With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President, Richard Silver.

The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent compared to April 2011.While price growth was strongest for single-detached homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more moderate annual rate of price growth, at 4%.
“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area.While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year.On net, borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0412.htm

Competition Bureau Threatens to Dismantle Privacy Safeguards of Home Sales 75% of Ontarians Opposed

On March 14, 2012, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released the results of an Angus Reid Vision Critical poll. The vast majority of Ontarians clearly expressed their opposition to abandoning the privacy safeguards of the current MLS® System.

When asked about the consequences of the Competition Bureau’s actions, Ontarians expressed concern:

• 75% of Ontarians believe that personal information such as name and final sale price should be kept confidential by REALTOR® professionals. Commissioner Aitken wants to release this information.
• 70% of homeowners do not want their personal contact information released to the public. Commissioner Aitken wants to release this information.
• 67% of Ontarians oppose any measure to make personal contact information such as name and address available to others who are not subject to a professional code of conduct. Commissioner Aitken wants to release this information.

“The results of this poll are overwhelming,” said TREB President Richard Silver.” TREB strongly believes that REALTORS® have an obligation to protect consumers’ personal information. That’s why TREB and REALTOR® Members are fighting for the privacy rights of consumers.”

The Competition Bureau is taking action that would force TREB to abandon the safeguards in the MLS® System and make personal information publicly available on the Internet, threatening the privacy and safety of GTA consumers.

If the Competition Commissioner gets her way, consumers’ private information, which is currently protected on our secure MLS® System, would become freely available on the Internet, including:

• Seller’s name and address
• Property floor plans
• Sensitive Property access information
• Negotiated sale price
• Mortgage details

“Ontarians clearly oppose what Commissioner Aitken is trying to do. They’ve said they want their personal and private information kept confidential,” said Von Palmer, Chief Government and Public Affairs Officer and Chief Privacy Officer for TREB.

If Commissioner Aitken gets her way, Ontarians won’t. Privacy matters. TREB is standing up for GTA consumers. Visit www.ProtectYourPrivacy.ca for more information.

Canada Housing Prices Won't Crash: Poll

It was published in the Financial Post that Canada’s government will make it tougher for many homebuyers to get mortgages this year as it grapples with an overheated property market, according to analysts in a Reuters poll, who also ruled out the prospect that prices could suddenly crash.Ten of 14 economists and strategists surveyed last week in Reuters’ first poll on the Canadian housing sector answered “yes” when asked if they thought Ottawa would tighten mortgage rules within the next 12 months.
They expect home prices to climb just 0.1% in the year to December 2012, and the same in 2013. That is down from a 0.9% year-on-year increase in December 2011.
If Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightens requirements for government-backed insured mortgages it would be his fourth intervention in the real estate market since 2008.
Flaherty could raise the minimum down payment to buy a home from the current 5% or reduce the maximum amortization period from 30 years.
Any move would likely come before the prime spring real estate season, analysts said. “Sometime between now and the next budget,” said Benoit Durocher, senior economist at Desjardins in Montreal, on the timing of such a move.
The budget is expected in late March.
The poll respondents see the housing market as moderately overvalued, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.
“There is some genuine concern that the housing market and households have been overstretched,” said Mazen Issa, economist at TD Securities.
“But in the absence of several triggers for a housing market decline, which are not likely to be forthcoming until at least the middle of next year, the underlying theme is of gradual moderation,” he said.
Possible triggers would be a rise in mortgage rates or a sharp rise in unemployment.
Household debt levels are approaching those in the United States before the 2008-09 housing meltdown there. Canada’s debt-to-income ratio hit a record 153% last year and is expected to rise.
The Bank of Canada, which has fanned the flames by holding its benchmark lending rate at 1% for an unprecedented 17 months, has made it clear that rates are likely to stay unchanged for at least this year.
Read more on this:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/21/canada-housing-prices-wont-crash-poll/#more-144215

January Shows Toronto Real Estate Market Continues Strong

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,567 sales through the TorontoMLS® system in January 2012. This number was 8.8 per cent higher than the 4,199 sales reported in January 2011. Sales growth was strongest for low-rise home types in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto.

“A favourable affordability picture bolstered by very low posted fixed mortgage rates has kept home buyers confident in their ability to achieve the Canadian goal of home ownership,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “The buyer pool remains diverse in the GTA with strong interest in home types across the pricing spectrum,” continued Silver.

The average selling price for January 2012 transactions was $463,534 – up by almost 9 per cent compared to January 2011.
“Low inventory levels have kept competition between buyers strong, resulting in robust annual rates of price growth over the last year. Strong price growth is expected to attract more listings. A better supplied market should result in a slower rate of price growth, especially in the second half of 2012,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0112.htm

Foreign acquisition of Canadian debt securities strengthens

According to Statistics Canada, Foreign investment in all types of Canadian securities strengthened in November with non-residents adding $15.0 billion to their holdings, the largest such inflow of funds since May. Canadian investors purchased $2.8 billion of foreign securities, evenly split between stocks and bonds. For the 11 months ending in November, foreign investment in Canadian securities was $88.2 billion compared with $14.7 billion of Canadian investment in foreign securities.
For information, click the link below:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120117/dq120117a-eng.htm

Hot Market is Cooling!!?

The Canadian government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said today, Tuesday, noting he saw indications of softening in the market.He was speaking to reporters after the Bank of Canada said that very favourable credit conditions were expected to buttress housing activity, and that Canada’s ratio of household debt to income was expected to rise further.
Asked if he had expressed concern with the banks about record-low mortgage rates, he said: “I have frequent discussions with the bank leaders including some of them yesterday in Toronto.”
Data this week showed existing homes sales rose only slightly in Canada last month, while the average sale price declined, offering further evidence the once hot market is cooling.
Canada’s housing sector, which did not experience the subprime mortgage boom and bust seen in the United States, played a key role in lifting the economy out of recession as ultra-low interest rates drove sales and prices higher.
But policymakers have voiced fears the market’s post-recession boom, combined with a long run of low lending rates, could create an asset bubble. The Canadian government tightened mortgage rules several times to cool the market.
Cautioning consumers, Mr. Flaherty reiterated on Tuesday that Canadians must not assume interest rates will remain low for a long time.

Financial Post, Tuesday, January17, 2012.

November Resale Housing Market Figures

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,092 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in November – up 11% in comparison to November 2010. At the same time, the number of new listings was up by 14% in comparison to last year.
“We have seen strong annual sales growth through the 2011 fall market. The increase in transactions has been broad-based, with strong growth across low-rise and high-rise home types throughout the Greater Toronto Area,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver. “The market has also become better supplied, with annual new listings growth outstripping that of sales. As this trend continues into 2012, we will see more balanced market conditions.”
The average price for November transactions was $480,421, representing an increase of almost 10 per cent in comparison to $437,494 in November 2010.
“Despite strong price growth this year, the housing market remains affordable in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The correct method of assessing affordability is to consider the share of the average household’s income that is dedicated to mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities. Currently, this share remains in line with generally accepted lending guidelines. Given this positive affordability picture, average price growth is forecast to continue in 2012, albeit at a more moderate pace.”

Strong Condo Sales Growth in Q3 2011

On October 24, 2011 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 5,770 condominium apartment transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in the third quarter of 2011, representing a 24% increase over the same period in 2010. The average selling price increased by almost 9% to $333,352.
"Condominium apartments have accounted for about one-quarter of total existing home sales in the GTA this year. This share is expected to increase moving forward, as new home sales and construction has become increasingly driven by high-rise construction," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

In line with new home sales and construction trends over the last few years, condominium apartment completions have been high so far in 2011. When condo projects reach the completion stage, investors and end users whose housing needs have changed often list their units for sale or rent.
"The average annual rate of price growth remained strong in the third quarter, despite the upward trend in completions and active listings. This is because the pace of sales remained brisk, keeping sellers' market conditions in place," said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Strong Price Growth "Thanks" to Low Interest rates. Average Selling Price was up 8% in October

As always at the beginning of each month, Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) provides us with the most up-to- date information regarding Real Estate Market activity.--
Thus, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,642 home sales through the TorontoMLS® in October 2011. This represented an increase of 17.5% compared to the 6,504 transactions reported in October 2010.

Monthly sales data follow a recurring seasonal trend that should be removed before comparing monthly results within the same year. After adjusting for seasonality, the annualized rate of sales for October was 97,100, which was above the average of 90,700 for the first three quarters of 2011.
“The pace of October resale home transactions remained brisk in the GTA. This bodes well for a strong finish to 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “Home buyers who found it difficult to make a deal in the spring and summer due to a shortage of listings have benefitted from increased supply in the fall.”
The average selling price through the TorontoMLS® in October was $478,137 – up eight per cent compared to October 2010.
“Sellers’ market conditions remain in place in many parts of the GTA.  The result has been above-average annual rates of price growth for most home types,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.  “Thanks to low interest rates, strong price growth has not substantially changed the positive affordability picture in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions.”

Average selling price continued to grow by close to 10% - September Resale Housing Figures

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,658 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in September – a 25% increase over September 2010. Sales during the first three quarters of 2011 amounted to 70,588, representing a 2.6 per cent increase compared to the first nine months of 2010.
“We have experienced strong growth in sales so far this year, with a much more active summer compared to 2010. However, while sales have been strong, we have continued to experience a shortage of listings, resulting in more competition between home buyers,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “Over the past few months, the listing situation has started to improve, so we expect home buyers will have more homes to choose from in the months ahead.”
With annual growth in sales (+25 per cent) outstripping annual growth in new listings (+15 per cent) in September, market conditions became tighter and the average selling price continued to grow by close to 10 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
“Strong price growth through the first nine months of the year was mitigated to a great degree by low interest rates and rising incomes,” said the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer. “As buyers continue to take advantage of the affordable home ownership options in the GTA, we remain on pace for the second best year for sales under the current TREB market area.”

Canadian Household Debt worries IMF

NEW YORK – The Vancouver housing market is attracting unusually strong demand but Canada as a whole does not face a housing bubble that requires government action, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday.

Mr. Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have paid close attention to Vancouver housing prices, and they have warned Canadians not to take on so much debt that they will not be able to service it when interest rates rise.
Asked at a news conference in New York what it would take for Canada to act again to cool the market, he said: “It will take clear evidence of a bubble in the housing market in Canada, which we have not seen.”
Given low interest rates, the level of housing demand in Canada is not surprising, Mr. Flaherty said. But he added: “We have seen in the past year some softening in the Canadian housing market, in part due to the tightening of the insured mortgage market rules that we did earlier this year… That’s an appropriate result from that tightening.”
The International Monetary Fund said in a report on Wednesday that private credit remains strong in Canada and that the government might need to consider further measures to prevent households from taking on too much debt.
“Developments on the housing front require increased vigilance, and consideration may need to be given to additional prudential measures to prevent a further buildup in household debt,” the lender said in its Western Hemisphere outlook.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/05/no-housing-bubble-flaherty/

Resale Housing Market to Stabilize by 2012

Fewer uyers and more listings will result in a more balanced resale housing market in Ontario over the next year, according to the 3rd quarter Housing Market Outlook by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
... the demand for new and existing homes in the province is expected to drop slightly for the remainder of this year before stabilizing into 2012. Although lower demand by first-time buyers and higher mortgage carrying costs are expected to dampen housing activity, higher employment and income levels are projected to offset those factores and provide support for housing into 2012.

Hot Summer Heated Up Toronto Real Estate Market in August

According to Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) 7,542 Sales were reported by Greater Toronto REALTORS® through the TorontoMLS® system in August - a 24% increase over 6,083 sales in August 2010. New listings, at 12,509, were up by 20 per cent compared to August 2010. Market conditions remained tight as sales growth outstripped growth in new listings."Home sales in the GTA have stood up well despite a less certain economic outlook," said TREB President Richard Silver. "Home sales will be bolstered by low mortgage rates moving forward. The Bank of Canada is expected to be on the sidelines until the second half of 2012 or even into 2013. However, home ownership affordability in the City of Toronto could be further improved with the removal of the City's land transfer tax. This tax currently represents a substantial upfront cost for home buyers."
With market conditions remaining tight in the GTA, the average selling price continued to grow strongly in August – up by more than 10% year-over-year to $451,663.
"We remain on pace for the second best year on record for sales. Approximately 90,000 transactions are expected by the end of December," said TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer. "Major home ownership costs, including the average monthly mortgage payment, remain affordable despite the strong price growth experienced so far this year."

Labour Market - Employment Numbers for June 2011

Employment rose for the third consecutive month, up 28,000 in June, according to Statistics Canada at the beginning of July, 2011.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4% as the number of people participating in the labour market increased. Over the past 12 months, employment has grown by 238,000(+1.4%).
Employment was up in transportation and warehousing in June, while it fell in professional, scientific and technical services. There was little change in the other industries.
Increases in the number of employees working in the public and private sectors were tempered by a decline in the number of self-employed. Over the past 12 months, public sector employment rose by 2.5%, private sector employment was up 1.5%, while the number of self-employed was little changed.
Ontario, Alberta and Nova Scotia posted employment gains in June, while there were declines in Quebec as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. Employment was little changed in the other provinces.

Third Best June Ever with a 9.5% Increase on Average Price due to Tight Supply

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,230 home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in June 2011 – up 21% compared to June 2010. This number represented the third best June result on record behind 2007 and 2009. The number of transactions during the first 6 months of 2011 amounted to 48,189 – down by 4.5% compared to the first half of 2010.
“The strong June result capped off an interesting first half of 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “The pace of sales was a bit sluggish at the beginning of the year, but rebounded in May and June. Because of the positive affordability picture, home buyers remained confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term.”
The average price for June transactions was $476,371 – a 9.5% increase over June 2010. Through the first 6 months of the year, the average selling price was $467,169 – almost an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2010.
“While sales have been strong, we would be on track for a record number of transactions in 2011 if not for the decline in listings so far this year,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Tight supply meant more competition between home buyers and an accelerating annual rate of price growth in the second quarter.”
“Home owners will likely react to the stronger price growth by listing their homes in greater numbers. A better supplied market would result in more moderate price increases,” continued Mercer.

Second Best "May" ever. Sales were up 6% & Average Price 9% up.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,046 sales in May 2011 – up 6% compared to May 2010. This result was the second best on record for May under the current
Toronto Real Estate Board service area. The number of new listings in May, at 16,076, was down 15% compared to last year.
“Positive economic news and low borrowing costs led to strong sales through the first five months of the year, including the increase in May,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston. “At the same time, the market has become much tighter compared to last year, due to a substantial dip in new listings.”
Homes were on the market for an average of 23 days and sold for an average price of $485,520.00 – up 9% compared to $446,593 in May 2010. The strongest rate of price growth was experienced for single-detached homes sold in the City of Toronto.
“We have seen clear-cut seller’s market conditions emerge over the past two to three months,” explained Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The robust price appreciation that we have seen will hopefully prompt more households to list, resulting in a more balanced market later this year,”continued Mercer

Average April selling price growing by 9%

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,041 existing home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in April 2011. This result was down 17 per cent compared April 2010 when sales spiked to a new record of 10,898. While off last year's record result, April 2011 sales were in line with the average April sales level reported over the previous five years.
Existing home sales have been strong from a historic perspective through the first four months of 2011. Expect the pace of sales to remain robust through the spring, as the economy expands and home buyers continue to benefit from affordable home ownership opportunities.
Market conditions tightened markedly over the last year. April 2011 sales accounted for 62 per cent of new listings during the month – up substantially from 53 per cent in April 2010. Tighter conditions resulted in the average April selling price growing by 9% annually to $477,407.
"The number of listings has been below expectations so far this year. Increased competition between home buyers has led to an accelerating annual rate of price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "The strong price growth experienced in April should result in more listings and more balanced market conditions."

Unemployment Rate According to Statscan

Employment edged up in February (+15,000), bringing total gains over the past three months to 115,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.8%. Over the past 12months, employment has risen by 1.9% (+322,000).
Part-time employment rose by 39,000 in February, partly offset by a decline in full-time work. Over the past 12 months, part-time employment has grown by 5.1% (+166,000), while full time increased by 1.1% (+156,000).

Lower Sales but Higher Average Price

In February, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,266 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system. This result was 14% lower than the record sales reported in February 2010.
While not representing a record, February 2011 sales were 50% higher than the number reported in February 2009 during the recession and slightly higher than the average February sales over the previous ten years.
"Continued improvement in the GTA economy, including growth in jobs and incomes and a declining unemployment rate, has kept the demand for ownership housing strong," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
The average selling price for February 2011 transactions was $454,423, which was more than 5% higher than the average selling price reported in February 2010.
"Market conditions remain quite tight in the GTA. There is enough competition between home buyers to promote continued price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.