New Government Rules to Hit Condo Buyers

According to "National Post", The federal government's efforts to get tough on borrowing are now focused on the condominium sector, with new rules in the works to make it tougher to qualify for a loan on a high-rise apartment. Sources say rules now being discussed would add 100% of condominium fees to the list of expenses that is measured against income to decide whether a buyer can afford a mortgage. Currently, only 50% of the fee is considered. The move has the potential to squeeze thousands of consumers out of the market.
The proposal is said to be part of a series of new rules the government is "seriously considering."
Brad Lamb, a Toronto real estate broker and developer, said the practice would discriminate against condominium owners. "When you buy a house, you don't put any future maintenance costs [in your debt calculation]," said Mr. Lamb. "All it is a knee-jerk reaction by idiot bankers pressuring idiot politicians that don't understand the nature of the condominium market in Canada. What is driving the condominium market in Ottawa, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal ... is investors. This won't affect them. This just attacks the lowly first-time buyer."

Potential Changes to Canada's Mortgage Financing Rules

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has launched a REALTOR® Call for Action on potential changes to Canada’s mortgage financing rules.
According to CREA, there is strong speculation the federal government may further tighten mortgage financing rules; in particular, raising down payment requirements and shortening amortization periods. This would make it more difficult for some Canadian families to purchase a home and could have a detrimental impact on existing homeowners and the economy. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is monitoring the situation, and will take action if needed.
In a December letter to the Minister of Finance, CREA’s CEO Pierre Beauchamp raised concerns about possible changes to mortgage financing rules.

Expect the average selling price to grow at or below five per cent in 2011

Toronto Real Estate Board made public on January 6, 2011 that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,395 existing home sales for the month of December, bringing the 2010 total to 86,170 – down by 1% compared to 2009.
"Market conditions were anything but uniform in 2010. We went from super-charged sales activity during the first four months of the year, to a marked drop-off in transactions in the summer and then in the fall saw sales climb back to levels that are sustainable over the longer term," said TREB President Bill Johnston."New Federal Government-mandated mortgage lending guidelines, higher borrowing costs and misconceptions about the HST caused a pause in home buying in the summer. As it became clear that the HST was not applicable to the sale price of an existing home and buyers realized that home ownership remained affordable, market conditions improved," continued Johnston.
The average home selling price in 2010 was $431,463 – up 9% in comparison to the 2009 average selling price of $395,460. In December, the average annual rate of price growth was five per cent.
"At the outset of 2010, we were experiencing annual rates of price growth at or near 20 per cent. This was the result of extremely tight market conditions coupled with the fact that we were comparing prices to the trough of the recession at the beginning of 2009," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Balanced market conditions in the second half of 2010 resulted in more moderate home price appreciation," continued Mercer. "Expect the average selling price to grow at or below five per cent in 2011. With this type of growth, mortgage carrying costs for the average priced home in the GTA will remain affordable for a household earning an average income."

Toronto Real Estate Figures for October 2010

The last figures published by Toronto Real Estate Board show that Greater Toronto Realtors reported 6,681 Sales through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in October 2010.

This represented a 21% decrease compared to the 8,476 sales recorded in October 2009. Through the first ten months of the year, sales amounted to 75,582 - up 1% compared to the January through October period in 2009.

"The annual change in sales and average selling prices has been quite uniform across the GTA and by property type as the market has balanced out from record levels of sales in the 2nd half of 2009 and first few months of 2010", said TREB President, Bill Johnston.

"The composition of GTA home sales does differ depending on location. Condominium apartments accounted for 42% of total sales in the city of Toronto and almost 60% of sales in TREB's central districts," Johnston continued. "In regions surrounding the city of Toronto, in contrast, low rise home types accounted for almost 90% of transactions."

The average price for October transactions was $443,729 - up 5% compared to the average of $423,559 reported in October 2009. The average selling price through the first nine months of the year was $430,802.

"The average selling price in the GTA has continued to grow relative to 2009 because home ownership has remained affordable," said Jason Mercer, the TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "A household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably afford the mortgage payments associated with the purchase of an average priced home."

"The outlook for mortgage rates and income growth over the next year is favorable. The average home selling price could increase moderately next year and remain affordable for the average GTA household," continued Mercer.

October Sales and Average Prices

Toronto (416), 2,751 Sales, Average Price: $491,157

Rest of GTA (905), 3,930 Sales, Average Price: $410,529

Total GTA 6,681 Sales, Avergage Price: $443,729

Resale Homes remain affordable although the level of Sales has been lower

At the beginning of October, Toronto Real Estate Board released its monthly report. And according to it, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,310 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2010. This represented a 23% decrease compared to the 8,196 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. Through the first nine months of the year, sales amounted to 69,069 – up 4% compared to the first three quarters of 2009."The level of sales in the second half of 2010 has been lower, representing a balancing out period following record levels of sales in the latter half of 2009 and first few months of 2010. We remain on track for one of the best years in history for existing home transactions in the GTA," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.
The average price for September transactions was $427,329– up five per cent compared to the average of $406,877 reported in September 2009. The average selling price through the first nine months of the year was $429,657."Resale homes in the GTA remain affordable," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis."It is important to consider the positive impact of declining mortgage rates over the past two decades. Simply considering home prices relative to incomes does not allow for an accurate analysis of affordability," continued Mercer. "The share of average household income going toward a mortgage payment on the average priced home in the GTA remains within accepted lending guidelines. This is why the average home selling price has continued to grow." Median Price in September price was $360,325, from the $347,000 recorded during September of 2009.

Cool Real Estate Market during Summer Months

The"Toronto Star" Business Section of September 4, 2010 says that August was cool, representing for the third month in a row, existing home sales in the Toronto area fell compared with last year.
Confirming, the Toronto Real Estate Board shows the numbers on their website indicating that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,232 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August 2010. This represented a 22% decrease compared to the 8,035 sales recorded during the same period in 2009. We had 2,360 sales in Toronto (416) and 3,872 sales in the GTA area (905). New listings decreased by one per cent year-over-year to 10,488.

We Adjust When the Conditions Change

The tightening of mortgage criteria, the rise in mortgage rates and the introduction of HST increasing the cost of living, are probably the factors that are directly affecting Real Estate Market Sales.
Sales in Toronto dropped 29 per cent in the first two weeks of August compared with the same time last year, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. The average price edged down 3.5 per cent from the average tally in mid-July. With prices slowly dropping, buying and selling tactics from the recent boom now seem as disposable as flip-flops. What worked for the last few months will not work in upcoming months. As the market shifts, we should understand, adapt, and capitalize. When homeowners won’t reduce their price, their properties might not move. By contrast, people who adapt to changes in the market have had more success.

Real Estate Market Sales Down in July - Market Becomes more Balanced

According to Toronto Real Estate Board, REALTORS® in Toronto reported 6,564 sales in July – a 34% dip from the record 9,967 sales reported in July 2009. New listings, at 10,825, dropped to the lowest level for the month of July since 2002.“The level of July sales remained below the expected long-term trend. The market has become more balanced following record monthly sales through most of the winter and early spring,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
Total sales through the first seven months of 2010 were up by 12% compared to the same period in 2009.
Notwithstanding the fact that price trends vary at the neighbourhood level in GTA, the average price for July transactions was $420,482, representing a 6% increase over July 2009.
Over the first seven months of 2010, the average selling price was up 12% annually to $432,253. While July sales were down compared to last year, the number of new listings in the market place also fell.
Read More at:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_market_watch_0710.pdf

Labour Market getting stronger in June 2010

The most recent report released by Stats Canada shows that employment rose by 93,000 in June, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This is the first time the rate has been below the 8% mark since January 2009.
Employment has been on an upward trend since July 2009, increasing by 403,000 (+2.4%). These gains offset nearly all the employment losses observed during the labour market downturn which began in the fall of 2008. The June unemployment rate, however, remains well above the October 2008 rate of 6.2%.
Since July 2009, most of the employment gains have been in full-time work, up 355,000 or 2.6%, while part-time work rose by 1.5%.
Notable employment increases in June were in service industries including retail and wholesale trade; business, building and other support services; health care and social assistance; and other services such as automotive repair and personal care services.
In June, there were continued gains in the number of private sector employees. The number of self-employed workers also increased, while there was little change among public sector employees.
Virtually all of June's employment gains were in Ontario (+60,000) and Quebec (+30,000). At the same time, there were declines in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. There was little employment change in all other provinces.

Homes Sales down in June

During last month of June, greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,442 sales through theMultiple Listing Service® (MLS®).This represented a 23 per cent decrease compared to the record 10,955 sales reported in June 2009. Sales for the second quarter of 2010 amounted to 28,810 – up one percent annually. Year-to-date sales through June were up 23 per cent to 50,455compared to the first six months of 2009.“We experienced a record number of existing home sales during the first half of 2010,but these sales were weighted more towards the beginning of the year,” said newly elected Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston. “The pace of home sales has moderated from record levels over the past two months with the prospect of higher mortgage rates.”The average price for June transactions was $435,034.

Home Sales down 9.5% and new mortgage guidelines limit how much people can borrow

The Real Estate market is slowing but different segments are affected differently.
The beginnng of summer time, the raise of interest rates, the new mortgage rules and the implementation of Harmonized Sales Tax are the main reasons affecting the current marketing conditions. An article published yesterday (June 17, 2010) in the National Post (Financial Section) saying that the "Existing-home sales fell 9.5% in May from the previous month...", just confirmed my suspicions.
The same article also says that "tougher rules in the country's mortgage market took effect in April. All those looking for home-financing loans must now meet the standards set for five-year , fixed-rate mortgages, even if they are seeking a variable-rate mortgage. These guidelines effectively limit how much people can borrow.

Good News in the Labour Market, StatsCanada reveals.

Following large gains in April, employment rose by 25,000 in May, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1%. Since the start of the upward trend in July 2009, employment has risen by 1.8% or 310,000.
Ontario's employment was up 18,000 in May, all in full-time work. The increase in May brings employment gains in that province to 127,000 (+1.9%) since July 2009, a rate of growth similar to the national average (+1.8%). In May, the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage points to 8.9% as more people entered the labour market.

May's employment increase was mainly among women aged 55 and over (+17,000). Since July 2009, employment has grown the fastest among men aged 55 and over (+5.0%), followed by women aged 55 and over (+3.1%).

May Sales Remain High

According to TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board), Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,470 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, representing a one percent dip from May 2009. In comparison to previous years, this was the third highest May sales result on record.
TREB's President, Tom Lebour says “The pace of transactions slowed in May following record-setting sales in February, March and April,”. He also added that, “Buyers who otherwise would have been purchasing a home in May moved more quickly this year, likely to get ahead of mortgage rate hikes.”
New listings were up 38% annually to 18,940. The average price for May transactions was $446,593 – up 13% compared to the average of $395,609 recorded in May 2009.
“The gap between listings and sales has widened, which means there is more choice for buyers,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The annual rate of price growth will slow in the second half of 2010, from the current double digit pace into the single digits.”
The median price in May was $376,750, from the $337,000 recorded during May of 2009.

Housing Figures for the Month of April show new Records

Greater Toronto REALTORS®, according to TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) reported 10,898 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, representing a 34% increase compared to April 2009. There were also 20,683 new listings in April – a 59% annual increase. Both the sales and new listings results amounted to new records for the month of April under the current Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) boundaries.
“The GTA resale market is functioning properly. Sales were high as buyers continued to take
advantage of affordable home ownership opportunities. Listings grew as home owners reacted
to strong sales and price growth,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour.
“More balanced market conditions will result in sustainable rates of annual price growth in the
second half of 2010.”
The average price for April transactions was $437,600 – up 13 per cent compared to the
average of $385,641 recorded in April 2009.
"Home sales continue to be driven by many different segments of the market, with sales
growth for all major home types in both the City of Toronto and surrounding 905 regions," said
Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Home sales will remain strong in the
second half of 2010, but will slip from the current record pace as borrowing costs rise.”

Pressure to Beat HST and Increase of Interes Rates

The Real Estate Market in Toronto is so HOT, that I had to present offers to purchase a property for my most recent clients four (4) times, in four different properties due to the fact that for each listed property there were multiple Offers every time. No matter whether the sellers were holding offers or not, no matter how fast or early I showed the properties to my clients and registered the Offers, we'd always be involved in a multiple Offer situation.
Obviously every single buyer wants to beat the HST (New 13% Tax) and the increase of the Interest Rates that will kick in this summer.

$434,696 - Average Price for March Real Estate Transactions

According to TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board), greater Toronto Realtors® reported 10,430 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, pushing total first quarter 2010 sales to 22,418 – the best result on record under the current Toronto Real Estate Board boundaries. The average price for March transactions was $434,696. The average price for the first quarter was $427,948.

These Happen When Interest Rates go up

When Lenders raise Mortgage (or Interest) Rates, (usually) a few things immediately happen in the Real Estate Market:
. Potential Home buyers have more difficulty to qualify for a mortgage (because now obtaining money from the lenders costs more).
. Potential Home buyers now qualify for smaller mortgage or don't qualify at all.
. Sellers (Property Owners) have more difficulty (depending on the location) to sell. They have to lower their expectations in terms of how long it's gonna take to sell the property(ies) and how much money they'll be able to obtain from a potential buyer in the new circumstances.

Mortgage Rates on the rise

Canadian banks delivered the first clear sign that the era of rock-bottom interest rates is over by suddenly hiking mortgage rates, a move that will cost Canadians more to finance home purchases and likely hasten an expected slowdown of the red-hot housing sector.
Surging home sales and prices were already expected to cool in the second half of this year as more listings hit the market and the Harmonized Sales Tax adds to purchase costs in Ontario and British Columbia.
Hikes on fixed-rate mortgages announced by three banks Monday (March 29, 2010) are expected to contribute to the slowdown as home buyers face higher costs amid a growing expectation that interest rates are likely entering a phase of higher levels.
The hikes are also expected to push some homeowners who have enjoyed ultra-low variable mortgage rates to lock in at set levels. Readings on inflation and the resurgent economy point to rate hikes within a few months by the Bank of Canada, whose trendsetting rate influences variable mortgage rates.
Royal Bank of Canada boosted the rate on five-year fixed-rate mortgages by 60 basis points to 5.85 per cent Monday, a move matched by Toronto-Dominion Bank. Laurentian Bank announced similar changes. Other major banks are likely to follow with rate hikes of their own.

Plenty of Indicators that Housing prices will remain strong

That is the title of an article by Diane Francis published on March 9, 2010 on the Financial Section of the National Post.

After participating in a Real Estate round table with professionals in Toronto, as she discribes in the article, the consensus was that prices would continue to increase, bot as much as last year. Besides that, she continues, there wee some interesting tidbits:

. Foreign "hot money" from Middle East, Europe, Asia and the United States is propping up the market and increasingly pouring into Toroto and Vancouver.

. Repatriating Canadians, fresh from Manhattan and London, are buying expensive real estate back home...

. Small condo units continue to be snapped up by Boomers and empty nesters as investments for rental purposes, to eventually live in when they downsize or to house their offspring in starter homes.

. Buying interest is due to record-low mortgage rates, but also the massive transfer of wealth being handed down to Boomers from their parents.

. Both Toronto and Vancouver are the principal destinations for roughly 300,000 new entrants annually (both from abroad and other parts of the country).

Garth Turner, former Tory Cabinet Minister, also present at the round table, suggested the prices will drop when mortgage rates rise this summer, and because they're too pricey.

February Sales and Average Price Increase Annually

During last month of February, 7,291 sales were reported by Toronto Realtors through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), representing a 77% increase over February 2009. The average price for these transactions was up 19 per cent year-over-year to $431,509.
Sales and average price increases represent both increased demand for ownership housing and the base year effect, which involves a comparison of economic recovery this year to a period of economic decline last year.
“Increases in existing home sales and average price were noted across the GTA in low-rise and high-rise home types. Similar rates of growth were experienced in the City of Toronto and surrounding 905 regions,” said TREB President Tom Lebour. “This suggests that first time, move-up and down sizing buyers are all active in the existing home marketplace.” New listings also increased in February, climbing 24 per cent compared to the same month last year.
“Annual growth in new listings is expected to continue. New listings growth will start to outstrip sales growth as we move through 2010,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “As the market becomes better supplied, we will see more sustainable single-digit rates of price growth.”