November Resale Housing Market Figures

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,092 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in November – up 11% in comparison to November 2010. At the same time, the number of new listings was up by 14% in comparison to last year.
“We have seen strong annual sales growth through the 2011 fall market. The increase in transactions has been broad-based, with strong growth across low-rise and high-rise home types throughout the Greater Toronto Area,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver. “The market has also become better supplied, with annual new listings growth outstripping that of sales. As this trend continues into 2012, we will see more balanced market conditions.”
The average price for November transactions was $480,421, representing an increase of almost 10 per cent in comparison to $437,494 in November 2010.
“Despite strong price growth this year, the housing market remains affordable in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The correct method of assessing affordability is to consider the share of the average household’s income that is dedicated to mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities. Currently, this share remains in line with generally accepted lending guidelines. Given this positive affordability picture, average price growth is forecast to continue in 2012, albeit at a more moderate pace.”

Strong Condo Sales Growth in Q3 2011

On October 24, 2011 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 5,770 condominium apartment transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in the third quarter of 2011, representing a 24% increase over the same period in 2010. The average selling price increased by almost 9% to $333,352.
"Condominium apartments have accounted for about one-quarter of total existing home sales in the GTA this year. This share is expected to increase moving forward, as new home sales and construction has become increasingly driven by high-rise construction," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

In line with new home sales and construction trends over the last few years, condominium apartment completions have been high so far in 2011. When condo projects reach the completion stage, investors and end users whose housing needs have changed often list their units for sale or rent.
"The average annual rate of price growth remained strong in the third quarter, despite the upward trend in completions and active listings. This is because the pace of sales remained brisk, keeping sellers' market conditions in place," said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Strong Price Growth "Thanks" to Low Interest rates. Average Selling Price was up 8% in October

As always at the beginning of each month, Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) provides us with the most up-to- date information regarding Real Estate Market activity.--
Thus, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,642 home sales through the TorontoMLS® in October 2011. This represented an increase of 17.5% compared to the 6,504 transactions reported in October 2010.

Monthly sales data follow a recurring seasonal trend that should be removed before comparing monthly results within the same year. After adjusting for seasonality, the annualized rate of sales for October was 97,100, which was above the average of 90,700 for the first three quarters of 2011.
“The pace of October resale home transactions remained brisk in the GTA. This bodes well for a strong finish to 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “Home buyers who found it difficult to make a deal in the spring and summer due to a shortage of listings have benefitted from increased supply in the fall.”
The average selling price through the TorontoMLS® in October was $478,137 – up eight per cent compared to October 2010.
“Sellers’ market conditions remain in place in many parts of the GTA.  The result has been above-average annual rates of price growth for most home types,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.  “Thanks to low interest rates, strong price growth has not substantially changed the positive affordability picture in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions.”

Average selling price continued to grow by close to 10% - September Resale Housing Figures

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,658 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in September – a 25% increase over September 2010. Sales during the first three quarters of 2011 amounted to 70,588, representing a 2.6 per cent increase compared to the first nine months of 2010.
“We have experienced strong growth in sales so far this year, with a much more active summer compared to 2010. However, while sales have been strong, we have continued to experience a shortage of listings, resulting in more competition between home buyers,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “Over the past few months, the listing situation has started to improve, so we expect home buyers will have more homes to choose from in the months ahead.”
With annual growth in sales (+25 per cent) outstripping annual growth in new listings (+15 per cent) in September, market conditions became tighter and the average selling price continued to grow by close to 10 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
“Strong price growth through the first nine months of the year was mitigated to a great degree by low interest rates and rising incomes,” said the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer. “As buyers continue to take advantage of the affordable home ownership options in the GTA, we remain on pace for the second best year for sales under the current TREB market area.”

Canadian Household Debt worries IMF

NEW YORK – The Vancouver housing market is attracting unusually strong demand but Canada as a whole does not face a housing bubble that requires government action, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday.

Mr. Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have paid close attention to Vancouver housing prices, and they have warned Canadians not to take on so much debt that they will not be able to service it when interest rates rise.
Asked at a news conference in New York what it would take for Canada to act again to cool the market, he said: “It will take clear evidence of a bubble in the housing market in Canada, which we have not seen.”
Given low interest rates, the level of housing demand in Canada is not surprising, Mr. Flaherty said. But he added: “We have seen in the past year some softening in the Canadian housing market, in part due to the tightening of the insured mortgage market rules that we did earlier this year… That’s an appropriate result from that tightening.”
The International Monetary Fund said in a report on Wednesday that private credit remains strong in Canada and that the government might need to consider further measures to prevent households from taking on too much debt.
“Developments on the housing front require increased vigilance, and consideration may need to be given to additional prudential measures to prevent a further buildup in household debt,” the lender said in its Western Hemisphere outlook.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/05/no-housing-bubble-flaherty/

Resale Housing Market to Stabilize by 2012

Fewer uyers and more listings will result in a more balanced resale housing market in Ontario over the next year, according to the 3rd quarter Housing Market Outlook by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
... the demand for new and existing homes in the province is expected to drop slightly for the remainder of this year before stabilizing into 2012. Although lower demand by first-time buyers and higher mortgage carrying costs are expected to dampen housing activity, higher employment and income levels are projected to offset those factores and provide support for housing into 2012.

Hot Summer Heated Up Toronto Real Estate Market in August

According to Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) 7,542 Sales were reported by Greater Toronto REALTORS® through the TorontoMLS® system in August - a 24% increase over 6,083 sales in August 2010. New listings, at 12,509, were up by 20 per cent compared to August 2010. Market conditions remained tight as sales growth outstripped growth in new listings."Home sales in the GTA have stood up well despite a less certain economic outlook," said TREB President Richard Silver. "Home sales will be bolstered by low mortgage rates moving forward. The Bank of Canada is expected to be on the sidelines until the second half of 2012 or even into 2013. However, home ownership affordability in the City of Toronto could be further improved with the removal of the City's land transfer tax. This tax currently represents a substantial upfront cost for home buyers."
With market conditions remaining tight in the GTA, the average selling price continued to grow strongly in August – up by more than 10% year-over-year to $451,663.
"We remain on pace for the second best year on record for sales. Approximately 90,000 transactions are expected by the end of December," said TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer. "Major home ownership costs, including the average monthly mortgage payment, remain affordable despite the strong price growth experienced so far this year."

Labour Market - Employment Numbers for June 2011

Employment rose for the third consecutive month, up 28,000 in June, according to Statistics Canada at the beginning of July, 2011.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4% as the number of people participating in the labour market increased. Over the past 12 months, employment has grown by 238,000(+1.4%).
Employment was up in transportation and warehousing in June, while it fell in professional, scientific and technical services. There was little change in the other industries.
Increases in the number of employees working in the public and private sectors were tempered by a decline in the number of self-employed. Over the past 12 months, public sector employment rose by 2.5%, private sector employment was up 1.5%, while the number of self-employed was little changed.
Ontario, Alberta and Nova Scotia posted employment gains in June, while there were declines in Quebec as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. Employment was little changed in the other provinces.

Third Best June Ever with a 9.5% Increase on Average Price due to Tight Supply

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,230 home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in June 2011 – up 21% compared to June 2010. This number represented the third best June result on record behind 2007 and 2009. The number of transactions during the first 6 months of 2011 amounted to 48,189 – down by 4.5% compared to the first half of 2010.
“The strong June result capped off an interesting first half of 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “The pace of sales was a bit sluggish at the beginning of the year, but rebounded in May and June. Because of the positive affordability picture, home buyers remained confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term.”
The average price for June transactions was $476,371 – a 9.5% increase over June 2010. Through the first 6 months of the year, the average selling price was $467,169 – almost an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2010.
“While sales have been strong, we would be on track for a record number of transactions in 2011 if not for the decline in listings so far this year,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Tight supply meant more competition between home buyers and an accelerating annual rate of price growth in the second quarter.”
“Home owners will likely react to the stronger price growth by listing their homes in greater numbers. A better supplied market would result in more moderate price increases,” continued Mercer.

Second Best "May" ever. Sales were up 6% & Average Price 9% up.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,046 sales in May 2011 – up 6% compared to May 2010. This result was the second best on record for May under the current
Toronto Real Estate Board service area. The number of new listings in May, at 16,076, was down 15% compared to last year.
“Positive economic news and low borrowing costs led to strong sales through the first five months of the year, including the increase in May,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston. “At the same time, the market has become much tighter compared to last year, due to a substantial dip in new listings.”
Homes were on the market for an average of 23 days and sold for an average price of $485,520.00 – up 9% compared to $446,593 in May 2010. The strongest rate of price growth was experienced for single-detached homes sold in the City of Toronto.
“We have seen clear-cut seller’s market conditions emerge over the past two to three months,” explained Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The robust price appreciation that we have seen will hopefully prompt more households to list, resulting in a more balanced market later this year,”continued Mercer

Average April selling price growing by 9%

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,041 existing home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in April 2011. This result was down 17 per cent compared April 2010 when sales spiked to a new record of 10,898. While off last year's record result, April 2011 sales were in line with the average April sales level reported over the previous five years.
Existing home sales have been strong from a historic perspective through the first four months of 2011. Expect the pace of sales to remain robust through the spring, as the economy expands and home buyers continue to benefit from affordable home ownership opportunities.
Market conditions tightened markedly over the last year. April 2011 sales accounted for 62 per cent of new listings during the month – up substantially from 53 per cent in April 2010. Tighter conditions resulted in the average April selling price growing by 9% annually to $477,407.
"The number of listings has been below expectations so far this year. Increased competition between home buyers has led to an accelerating annual rate of price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "The strong price growth experienced in April should result in more listings and more balanced market conditions."

Unemployment Rate According to Statscan

Employment edged up in February (+15,000), bringing total gains over the past three months to 115,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.8%. Over the past 12months, employment has risen by 1.9% (+322,000).
Part-time employment rose by 39,000 in February, partly offset by a decline in full-time work. Over the past 12 months, part-time employment has grown by 5.1% (+166,000), while full time increased by 1.1% (+156,000).

Lower Sales but Higher Average Price

In February, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,266 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system. This result was 14% lower than the record sales reported in February 2010.
While not representing a record, February 2011 sales were 50% higher than the number reported in February 2009 during the recession and slightly higher than the average February sales over the previous ten years.
"Continued improvement in the GTA economy, including growth in jobs and incomes and a declining unemployment rate, has kept the demand for ownership housing strong," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
The average selling price for February 2011 transactions was $454,423, which was more than 5% higher than the average selling price reported in February 2010.
"Market conditions remain quite tight in the GTA. There is enough competition between home buyers to promote continued price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Toronto Real Estate Sales Down in January but Average Price Continues to Grow

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,337 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in January 2011, says Toronto Real Estate Board. This result was 13 per cent lower than the record result reported in January 2010.
"While off the record pace experienced a year ago, the Great Toronto Area resale market has started the year on a solid footing. Home buyers in Toronto and surrounding areas continue to benefit from a diversity of housing types for sale at many different price points," said TREB President Bill Johnston.

The average selling price for January 2011 sales was $427,037, representing an increase of over four per cent compared to the average of $409,058 reported in January 2010.
"The average selling price is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2011. Growth rates in the three to five per cent range will be sustainable from an affordability perspective," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
The Number of Sales in Toronto (416) was 1,718 and the rest of GTA (905) was 2,619.
Median Price
In January, the median price was $360,000, from the $350,000 recorded during January of 2010.

Three new rules for the mortgage industry that will come into effect March 18

On January 17, 2011, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced new rules for Canadian mortgages that will "protect the stability of the economy."
Flaherty's announcement comes on the heels of a recent warning from the Bank of Canada that Canadians' domestic debt burden is the highest on record.
The announcement included three new rules for the mortgage industry that will come into effect March 18:
Mortgage amortization periods will be reduced from 35 years to 30 years.
The maximum amount Canadians can borrow to refinance their mortgages will be lowered from 90 per cent to 85 per cent of the value of their homes.
The government will withdraw its insurance backing on lines of credit secured on homes, such as home equity lines of credit.
It is the third time in three years that Flaherty has tightened credit rules while interest rates remain historically low.

The new restrictions are intended to ensure that Canadians don't slip into unmanageable debt, which could throw the economic recovery off the rails.
Flaherty targeted home-equity loans and lines of credit because some Canadians were using the money on consumer goods rather than to build equity into their homes, he said.
"They are used to buy boats and cars and big-screen TVs, and that's not the business mortgage insurance was designed for," he said. "Our measures will help improve the financial situation of households in Canada."
The Bank of Canada had announced earlier that Canadians' domestic debt burdens had hit the highest levels on record. The bank said the ratio of household debt to disposable income has reached 148 per cent -- which is higher than in the United States.
The International Monetary Fund also recently warned that household debt is the number one risk to the Canadian economy. Canadian household debt is now at $1.4 trillion, while mortgage delay payments have increased by 50 per cent.

New Government Rules to Hit Condo Buyers

According to "National Post", The federal government's efforts to get tough on borrowing are now focused on the condominium sector, with new rules in the works to make it tougher to qualify for a loan on a high-rise apartment. Sources say rules now being discussed would add 100% of condominium fees to the list of expenses that is measured against income to decide whether a buyer can afford a mortgage. Currently, only 50% of the fee is considered. The move has the potential to squeeze thousands of consumers out of the market.
The proposal is said to be part of a series of new rules the government is "seriously considering."
Brad Lamb, a Toronto real estate broker and developer, said the practice would discriminate against condominium owners. "When you buy a house, you don't put any future maintenance costs [in your debt calculation]," said Mr. Lamb. "All it is a knee-jerk reaction by idiot bankers pressuring idiot politicians that don't understand the nature of the condominium market in Canada. What is driving the condominium market in Ottawa, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal ... is investors. This won't affect them. This just attacks the lowly first-time buyer."

Potential Changes to Canada's Mortgage Financing Rules

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has launched a REALTOR® Call for Action on potential changes to Canada’s mortgage financing rules.
According to CREA, there is strong speculation the federal government may further tighten mortgage financing rules; in particular, raising down payment requirements and shortening amortization periods. This would make it more difficult for some Canadian families to purchase a home and could have a detrimental impact on existing homeowners and the economy. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is monitoring the situation, and will take action if needed.
In a December letter to the Minister of Finance, CREA’s CEO Pierre Beauchamp raised concerns about possible changes to mortgage financing rules.

Expect the average selling price to grow at or below five per cent in 2011

Toronto Real Estate Board made public on January 6, 2011 that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,395 existing home sales for the month of December, bringing the 2010 total to 86,170 – down by 1% compared to 2009.
"Market conditions were anything but uniform in 2010. We went from super-charged sales activity during the first four months of the year, to a marked drop-off in transactions in the summer and then in the fall saw sales climb back to levels that are sustainable over the longer term," said TREB President Bill Johnston."New Federal Government-mandated mortgage lending guidelines, higher borrowing costs and misconceptions about the HST caused a pause in home buying in the summer. As it became clear that the HST was not applicable to the sale price of an existing home and buyers realized that home ownership remained affordable, market conditions improved," continued Johnston.
The average home selling price in 2010 was $431,463 – up 9% in comparison to the 2009 average selling price of $395,460. In December, the average annual rate of price growth was five per cent.
"At the outset of 2010, we were experiencing annual rates of price growth at or near 20 per cent. This was the result of extremely tight market conditions coupled with the fact that we were comparing prices to the trough of the recession at the beginning of 2009," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Balanced market conditions in the second half of 2010 resulted in more moderate home price appreciation," continued Mercer. "Expect the average selling price to grow at or below five per cent in 2011. With this type of growth, mortgage carrying costs for the average priced home in the GTA will remain affordable for a household earning an average income."